"Is Russia Planning a 'False Flag' Attack on Moldova?"
"Russia Accuses Moldova of Plotting Military Operation Against Transnistria, Analysts Suspect Deeper Moscow Agenda"
"Russia has accused Moldova of planning a military operation in Transnistria, a Russian-backed separatist region, triggering concerns among analysts that Moscow could be orchestrating a 'false flag' attack in Moldova. Russian intelligence reported earlier this week that Moldova’s President Maia Sandu was preparing a military operation in Transnistria, which borders Ukraine. Sandu was sworn in for her second presidential term on Tuesday."
"On Wednesday, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused NATO of turning Moldova into a weapons hub for Ukraine, a claim that is likely to intensify concerns that Moscow may be seeking a pretext for potential military action against its smaller neighbor.
Here’s what is happening with Russia and Moldova, and what we can expect.
What has Russia Alleged?
On Monday, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service claimed that Moldova’s President Maia Sandu was planning a military operation in Transnistria. Russian intelligence further speculated that such an operation could escalate into full-scale war."
Sandu’s chief of staff, Adrian Balutel, refuted the claims, insisting that the country had no such plans to militarily enter Transnistria, even though it claims the territory as a part of Moldova.
On Wednesday, Russia introduced a new claim, alleging that the US-led NATO had recently supplied a significant quantity of weapons to Moldova. Maria Zakharova, a spokesperson for Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, argued that Moscow believes these weapons are ultimately intended for Ukraine. She further supported her allegations by pointing to Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s pro-Western stance.
In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has raised the possibility that not only Ukraine but also other nations supporting it in its conflict with Russia could be considered enemies, making them potential targets for Russian aggression.
What are the ‘false flag’ concerns?
Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has repeatedly warned that Moldova might be Moscow’s next target. She has urged Western leaders to pay attention to Moldova’s security concerns.
During her swearing-in ceremony for a second term this week in Chisinau, Moldova’s capital, Sandu declared, "We managed to open the door wide to the European Union." Moldova has been a candidate for EU membership since June 2022 and is awaiting Brussels’ formal acceptance of its application.
Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, DC, suggest that the Kremlin’s recent accusations could be part of a broader strategy to destabilize Moldova and prevent its EU accession. The ISW warned in a report that Russia might also be setting the stage for a "false flag" operation in Transnistria, a breakaway region in Moldova.
What is Transnistria?
Transnistria is a breakaway region in Moldova that is closely allied with Russia. It lies between Moldova’s Dniester River and Ukraine, with Romania to its west.
The region declared independence from Moldova in 1990. In September 2006, it held a referendum reaffirming its independence and calling for a union with Russia, although this vote was not recognized by Moldova.
In February 2022, as the war in Ukraine erupted, Transnistrian leaders appealed to Russia for protection. This plea echoed similar appeals made by pro-Russian leaders in Ukraine before Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and its occupation of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions in 2022.
While Transnistria is internationally recognized as part of Moldova, the region has been viewed as occupied by Russia since 2022. Russian troops are stationed in Transnistria, and the region also hosts a significant Russian weapons storage facility, the Cobasna ammunition depot.
Currently, around 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed in Transnistria, according to an October report by the Harvard International Review.
Other Ways Russia is Pressuring Moldova
Politically, Moldova recently held a presidential election, which was marred by allegations of Russian interference. Despite this, pro-Western President Maia Sandu won 55.33% of the vote, defeating Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general backed by the Russia-leaning Socialist Party.
A report by the London-based think tank Chatham House earlier this year revealed that Moscow is likely targeting Moldova’s public information space with harmful disinformation to influence its political landscape.
Moldova's Security and Challenges
Moldova’s national security service has accused pro-Russian oligarchs of funding anti-government protests and election fraud in the country. One such figure is Ilan Shor, a former Moldovan parliamentarian who was convicted in absentia on fraud charges in January.
Energy Crisis
Moldova is facing an energy crisis, heavily dependent on Russian gas for its energy needs. Each year, the country receives about 2 billion cubic meters (71 billion cubic feet) of gas from Russia. Since 2022, all of this gas is redirected to Transnistria.
Transnistria, in turn, sells electricity—generated using Russian gas—to Moldova. However, the gas travels through a pipeline that passes through Ukraine, and Kyiv has decided to stop allowing its transit. Moldovan President Maia Sandu has accused Gazprom, the Russian energy giant, of refusing to consider alternative pipeline routes and has warned the country to prepare for a "harsh" winter without Russian gas. Moldova’s gas supply is expected to end on January 1, 2025, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency in December due to the looming shortage.
Violence and Tensions
In April 2022, explosions rocked the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the largest city in Transnistria. The following day, more explosions destroyed two powerful radio antennas and damaged other facilities in the region.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, along with other Ukrainian allies, suggested these explosions were part of a "false flag" operation by Russia. The aim, they believe, was to create the appearance of Moldova attacking Transnistria, likely as part of a broader strategy to justify further aggression, particularly given Moldova’s support for Ukraine.
