Trump Disparaged Africa. So Why Are Some Africans Optimistic?
Trump Disparaged Africa. So Why Are Some Africans Optimistic?
During his first term, Donald Trump made several controversial statements about African nations. Notably, he referred to some of these countries using derogatory language and imposed immigration bans on several African nations. His remarks were damaging to relations with Africa. However, looking at the current situation, many African leaders are optimistic about his return to office. They believe that Trump’s second term could lead to more investment and trade deals and less pressure regarding issues like democracy and human rights.
Even though Trump's previous comments were widely criticized, many African leaders and analysts now hope that his administration could bring a new approach. Instead of focusing on human rights and democracy, some see potential for economic opportunities, such as trade partnerships and resource exploitation, under Trump’s leadership. His policies in the past have often been seen as transactional and pragmatic, and there is a growing belief that his administration could capitalize on Africa’s natural wealth and help counterbalance China’s growing influence on the continent.
One of the areas where Trump’s return could bring changes is in Africa's energy sector. Experts believe that Trump may loosen restrictions on the fossil fuel industry, offering African oil and gas producers more opportunities to profit. While Africa is among the most vulnerable regions to climate change, many leaders there are keen to exploit their natural resources, as their carbon emissions are much lower compared to industrialized nations.
Furthermore, a key focus for African leaders is the renewal and expansion of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which allows over 30 African countries to export certain goods to the U.S. duty-free. This act has created hundreds of thousands of jobs across the continent and is set to expire in 2025. While the African Union wants to extend AGOA for at least another 16 years, it is uncertain whether this will be a priority for an administration that has focused on increasing tariffs.
South Africa’s automobile industry and Kenya’s garment sector could suffer the most if AGOA is not renewed, according to economists. In fact, the African Export-Import Bank, based in Cairo, has hired a Washington-based lobbying group to advocate for AGOA’s renewal. The leader of the lobbying group has reported that her team is already engaging with top officials in Trump’s circle. “They are going to have a transactional, enterprise-driven approach that puts America first,” said Rosa Whitaker, former assistant U.S. trade representative for Africa under Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. However, she also emphasized, “We can’t put America first if we keep putting Africa last.”
As Africa’s economic ties with other countries, especially China, have grown, the importance of trade with the United States has diminished significantly. In 2000, over 20% of African exports went to the U.S.; by 2022, that number had dropped to less than 5%. From 2000 to 2020, Africa received just 1% of U.S. foreign direct investments, and these investments have decreased by a third from 2014 to 2022.
African leaders, like Olushegun Adjadi Bakari, the foreign minister of Benin, have noted that U.S. companies often bypass Africa and invest directly in China and India, but they are eager to do business with both the U.S. and China. “The world is a rainbow — it’s not made of two colors,” said João Lourenço, the president of Angola.
One of the most significant areas where the Trump administration could affect Africa is its strategy to counter China’s influence. China is Africa’s largest trading partner and a major financier of infrastructure projects, such as roads and ports, while also developing the digital future of the continent with 5G networks. However, American companies often face challenges in competing with China, citing reputational risks, particularly related to child labor, and bureaucratic hurdles.
Trump’s administration is expected to prioritize securing Africa’s mineral wealth, including rare earth minerals that are essential for technologies like electric vehicles and wind turbines. This will likely involve competing with China for access to these resources. Additionally, the Trump administration might seek to solidify supply chains by maintaining key infrastructure projects like the Lobito Corridor, a railway project that stretches from the Democratic Republic of Congo to Angola’s Atlantic coast through Zambia.
Meanwhile, there is hope among separatist movements in Africa, such as those in Cameroon, Nigeria, and Somalia, that Trump’s administration might support their causes. Some officials who served under Trump in Africa have suggested that he could recognize Somaliland, which declared independence from Somalia in 1991. In exchange, the U.S. might gain access to strategic military sites along the Gulf of Aden.
Some African nations, such as Uganda and Ghana, have faced criticism from the West for passing controversial laws, like those targeting the LGBTQ+ community, and for democratic backsliding in countries like Mali and Guinea. These actions have often resulted in U.S. sanctions or public condemnation. However, many African leaders hope that under Trump, the U.S. will adopt a less critical approach to their internal affairs. Tibor Nagy, who served as assistant secretary of state for African affairs under Trump, said that he hoped the U.S. would “drop the stupid megaphone, stop giving lectures, and back away from what I call cultural colonialism.”
While Trump may continue to focus on security partnerships and counterterrorism efforts in regions like the Sahel, his administration is expected to take a more hands-off approach when it comes to promoting democracy and human rights. The military juntas in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, which have turned to Russia for security support, may benefit from this shift in U.S. policy. Some U.S. diplomats, like J. Peter Pham, former U.S. envoy to the Sahel, believe that the U.S. has a significant opportunity to rebuild its relationship with these African nations, particularly after a major defeat for Russian mercenaries in Mali.
In conclusion, while Trump’s first term was marked by tensions and controversial policies toward Africa, his second term could potentially open the door to more trade, investment, and a less confrontational approach to governance issues in Africa. By shifting focus away from ideological debates about democracy and human rights, Trump’s administration could offer African leaders a more pragmatic partnership. This could be a critical moment for Africa, as it seeks to balance its relationships with both China and the United States in a rapidly changing global landscape.
